NEW DELHI: India is expected to maintain its projected economic growth target of 6.3% to 6.8% for the fiscal year 2025/26, despite global trade disruptions caused by the United States' imposition of new tariffs, a senior finance ministry official said on Monday.

The official stated that as long as global oil prices remain below $70 per barrel, the Indian economy is on track to meet its growth expectations, even in the face of escalating global tensions.

The reassurance comes amid increasing economic uncertainty triggered by a fresh wave of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The move has rattled global markets, sending major Asian stock indices sharply lower at the start of the trading week.

While several economists have warned that the new tariffs could slow India's GDP growth by 20 to 40 basis points in the current financial year, the finance ministry remains optimistic.

One of the hardest-hit sectors could be India’s diamond industry, which exports more than one-third of its output to the U.S. The potential impact could jeopardize thousands of jobs, according to industry experts.

However, a second finance ministry official said India’s core fiscal parameters are unlikely to be significantly affected by the U.S. tariff hikes in 2025/26. The government closely monitors the situation and remains open to policy interventions to support sectors most impacted by the changes.

“India is open to taking more measures to assist exporters impacted by higher U.S. tariffs,” the official added.
Despite the global headwinds, India’s finance ministry continues to project resilience in domestic demand and industrial output, bolstered by public infrastructure spending and strong rural consumption trends.

As the trade war continues to unfold, economists and policymakers alike are watching closely for further moves from Washington and potential global responses, including from key partners in Asia and Europe.